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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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