Newly disclosed documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".
Government Documents Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader
Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.
Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.
Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective
Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Options outlined in the documents included:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles
It cautioned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.
"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."
The document adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Long-Term Strategy Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".
Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.
